Before we get to the preview, I thought I’d take a moment and look back at Fall League’s predictions…
Team Liu Wei
Nick’s prediction: 5-3
Actual: 6-1-1
Well, Team Liu Wei played about as well as expected. Revolution kept the offense firing, and even when the team was missing an Alec or a Gabe or a Forrest, this team kept right on winning. Sadly, Team Liu Wei had too many absences for the league tournament, but other than that, this prediction was a success. Shanghai misses you, Liu Wei.
Team Nick
Nick’s predication: 5-3
Actual: 1-5-2
Ouch. While Nick’s radical and seemingly unique league strategy of giving all his players equal playing time didn’t work out so well in the regular season, the strategy proved more successful in the league tournament, where numerous younger and inexperienced players stepped up in the quarter and semifinals. Congrats to Team Dax for taking home the Fall League trophy. (Do we even have a trophy?)
Team Dax
Nick’s Prediction: 4-4
Actual: 3-5
Another bull’s-eye for the old prediction machine. Dax’s high variance strategy paid off about as well as everyone expected, which is to say about half the time. When a Huwa heavy rotation of Dax, Evan, Matteo, Geoff, and Sars were on the line, the team was a juggernaut, but when the absences mounted, this team struggled to keep games close. Luckily, the right mix of players showed up at the tournament and Team Dax confirmed what 40 years of ultimate has already taught us: league tournaments are always crapshoots.
Team Sam
Nick’s Prediction: 3-5
Actual: 6-1-1
Prediction machine…meltdown. Well, it turns out that a team full of handlers is actually kind of useful. You know…for handling.
Team Daves:
Nick’s Prediction: 3-5
Actual: 1-5-2
Another solid hit for the prediction machine. Rosie’s absence was a known variable before the league predictions came out, but no one knew just how devastating a blow it would be. Dave regrettably had to handle too much, and while Dave and Dave both improved over the course of the league, there were just too many non-Daves to compete with. Dave will always wonder how deep these Daves could have Daved.
2015 Fall League Season Preview
Team Alec Huwa
Starting Seven: Tokyo Dave, Gabe, Geoff, Alec, 1/2 Amy Smith, Eva, Summer/Pei
Bench: Jud, Travis, Joseph Hu, Peter Liu, Will Tseung, Jack Chen, Andrew Cook, Adam Callahan, Raymond Kwok, Pei/Summer, Erica Mingay, Florence Lee, Stephanie
Sleepers: Travis (Again), Summer/Pei
Overview: At first glance Team Alec Huwa is the team to beat. They have experience, athleticism, depth, cutters, handlers, uppers, downers, laughers, and screamers. Alec’s draft strategy was to find value in the middle rounds, often bidding on known commodities with (possible) attendance issues. Amy Smith looks to be out half the season while recovering from microfracture surgery (our very own Greg Oden!), Jud will be gone a month, and Gabe is flaky because of work. At full strength, this team is a handful, but how many times will it actually happen?
Strengths: Team Alec Huwa’s greatest strength might be their familiarity. While other teams are learning to work together, the core of Team AlecHuwa will know what to do from Day 1. Moving the disc will not be challenge, nor will man or zone D. The other great advantage to Team AlecHuwa is versatility. Alec drafted a smorgasbord of ultimate archetypes, giving him full range of chess pieces to move around the field.
Weaknesses: Sure, Team Alec Huwa looks good on paper, but ultimate games are not won on paper. They’re won on plastic astroturf. Duh. I don’t want to declare Alec a zhǐlǎohǔ, but this team is a few absences and an Alec back tweak away from limping in and out of games. One of this team’s greatest challenges will be integrating Peter, Will, Jack, Andrew, Raymond, Erica, Florence, and Stephanie. Will Alec have the balls to give less experienced players playing time in big moments? And will he have the patience to develop them over the course of the season? My gut says no, no he does not.
Prediction: 5-3
Team Curtis
Starting Seven: Evan, Jeff Larson, Chris Chang, Forrest, Kim, Xing, Becks
Bench: Curtis, Dan Barish, Suraj, Ross Gortney, AmmÓn, Ben Harris, Myron, Young Jud, Jerry, Nalam, Dennis Tung, Effy, Leslie, Irene Yang, Cindy
Sleepers: Jeff Larson, Myron
Overview: Curtis’s draft strategy was to be really, really quiet. Half-way through the draft, Curtis reached for a slice of pizza, and half the room gasped when they realized Curtis was a captain and not an overly adorable couch cushion. Roz was a little freaked out. Not that he completely borrowed Dax’s Fall League blueprint of feast or famine, but Curtis is definitely this league’s high variance team. (I’ve decided that whoever drafts Evan will always be the high variance team.) If everyone shows up, this team has a shocking amount of depth. If Evan and Jeff Larson turn into no shows…well, they’ll still be pretty good.
Strengths: Team Curtis has the strongest handlers of any league team. Chris, Forrest, and Young Jud could hold down the Alamo if need be, and this will allow deep threats like Evan, Xing, Kim, and Ben to push further up-field. Sprinkle in some handy utility players like Dan, Curtis, and Becks and this team has more looks than Lady Gaga! (Look, I’m really sorry. My joke writers have been on strike since 2008).
Weaknesses: Really? I have to talk about attendance issues again? Can’t everyone just come to league already? What else are you scheduling on a Monday effing night? /endrant
Prediction: 5-3
Team Aussie Dave
Starting Seven: Sam, Revolution, Aussie Dave, Aaron (LJ), Kate Chen, Bling, Vicky
Bench: Owen Churchill, Alan Miao, Eric, King Wang, Jeffjohnkwan, George, Li Xiang, David Dai, Jerry Hu, Donnie Giolzetti, Joseph Wilson, Minmin, Yohanna, Charlene Warnock, Olivia Ji
Sleepers: Alan Miao, Alan Miao again
Overview: Well, you can’t go wrong drafting the two centerpieces of last year’s most successful teams (Sam & Rev). Mix in some athletes (Dave, Aaron (LJ), and Bling), some handlers (Vicky, Eric), froth with a little upcoming talent (Owen Churchill, Alan Miao (Come on, Meow!), and top it off with a generous sprinkling of Minmin. Now suck all that through a Tim Tam, and you’ve got a great little creation I like to call a Tim Tam Sam ©. (Yes, you may pay me one beer in exchange for using the team name, Tim Tam Sam ©.)
Strengths: With Field Marshal Sam directing traffic, this team will be very dangerous moving the disc quickly in open space. Look for consistent bombs to Aussie Dave, Aarron (LJ), Bling, Owen Churchhill, Alan “Come on, Meow!” Miao, and King Wang. Defense will also be stingy, with Team Aussie Dave coming with speed off the bench.
Weaknesses: Absences: the Achilles heel of every mediocre league team. Revolution looks to be missing a large chunk of league, and Kate Chen’s knee shouldn’t be full strength for at least another month. Without Rev and Kate’s veteran disc moving, this team could very quickly degenerate into a huck first, ask questions later kind of attack. But let’s say a savvy team throws a Zone and One on old Tim Tam Sam ©, who else is going take up the reigns? Aussie Dave? LJ and Bling? If you cut the head off a snake, will it grow two more heads or will it wither and die? I predict death.
Prediction: 4-4
Team Taiwan Dave
Starting Seven: Nick, JC, Matteo, Taiwan Dave, Vita, Sara-J, ???
Bench: Martin, Will Sun, Eddie, Andrew Walker, Calvin, Seven, Stephen Bates, William Tan, JJ Su, Sheila, Celine, Shitingting, Daisy
Sleepers: Stephen Bates
Overview: The point in the draft where everyone realized Curtis was a living being was also the same point Taiwan Dave realized he had $1 left. Luckily, he’d drafted a lot of players, but half his roster had to be filled at the end of the draft. Aussie Dave really enjoyed consistently bidding $2 for everyone Taiwan Dave nominated. Grist for the Dave mill? The beginning of a vicious Davalry? Just say no to Dave on Dave violence.
Strengths: This team has height, depth, and (rechecking to make sure I can write this) a consistent line up that should show up week after week (a first!). Look for lots of jump balls, floaty swill, and playing above the rim. The bench is also nice, with loads of capable cutters. Everyone should be fairly comfortable with a disc in their hands.
Weaknesses: When Taiwan Dave was building his spreadsheet, he knew he needed to draft men and …Vita? Men and…Vita? Taiwan Dave has the weakest women’s roster in the league, but I’m not sure how many captains can/will strategize to use this to their advantage. How often do you see set plays run for women? Or how many times does a captain tell the guys to clear out of the lane? Once? Twice? Never? I’m looking forward to seeing how other captains react to the possible mismatches.
Prediction: 4-4
Team Roz
Starters: Dax, Luke, Shawn Newman, Kevin Schoenmakers, Jess Dunbar, Roz, Danielle
Bench: Robert Oleksiew, Ben Dunbar, M10, Christian, Bradi, Nolan, Will, Dante Hong, Joshua Keil, Kevin Song, Yingdan, TayTay, Lolly Zhang, Cara Zhu
Sleepers: Ben Dunbar, Kevin Schoenmakers
Overview: Roz went the opposite direction as Taiwan Dave, drafting as many quality women as possible. Unfortunately, this left her weaker on the male side of the equation. Dax will do Dax things, and Luke is reliable to do Luke things, but Shawn’s attendance is a question mark and Ben Dunbar’s knee is still not 100%. This will leave more inexperienced players like Robert, Christian, Nolan, and Tall Man Kevin Schoenmakers to fill in the gaps.
Strengths: Women. All the women. Like the entire tribe of Amazonia.
Weaknesses: Depth and experience. If this were a true coed league and Team Roz could go 4/3 women, then this team would really put teams in a bind. Unfortunately, this is 4/3 mens league, even tilting to 5/2 offense dictates. If Shawn shows up consistently, this team can compete, but otherwise, this team’s lack of experience will show up in turnovers. Hopefully Roz can find some solid hands on the bench who will allow Dax and Danielle to press up field.
Prediction: 2-6
*The opinions expressed in the above post represent one individual’s viewpoint and are in no way, shape, or form endorsed by SUPA. Also, because I rarely guard women (I try as often as I can), my perspective on the women’s side of the game is not as informed as I would like. If any of you ladies would like to remedy this, please email your long-term relationship goals to daxhaasinchina@gmail.com
